Kunstler Update (and WorldChanging Book Launch)

Posted on Tue, 2006-11-07 00:32 by sarahfelicity
Categories: social change | sustainability | vancouver | worldchanging

So, last night was the WorldChanging Book Launch here in Vancouver. It was well-attended, though a quick survey of the blogosphere reveals mixed opinions about the evening.

The highlight for me was probably the after-party at Six Acres (which I learned was the original size of Vancouver, back in tha day). Interestingly, I ended up talking with Alex Steffen (editor of WorldChanging site and book) about Kunstler and his ideas. I was somewhat relieved to hear Alex (who is a very well-informed guy) say that while he thinks Kunstler is bang on in his assessment of the problems and the situation (basically, suburbia was a really bad idea), he's not sold on his predictions for the future. He's a little more optimistic than Kunstler is, and thinks we have a moral obligation not to tell people that we're screwed and will never pull ourselves out of disaster in time.

I'm not sure where I stand. Sometimes, I must admit, I'm kind of pessimistic... but somehow that doesn't usually lead me to despair. I mean, even if we're going to hell in a handbasket, I actually still enjoy being in this world and sharing it with the many beautiful people in my life.

I should mention that I definitely didn't do justice above to Alex's thoughtful perspective on the situation. I'd love to hear what others think about The Long Emergency? Has anyone read it?

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via email

Fri, 2006-11-10 13:50 — sarahfelicity

I received the following this morning from a reader who couldn't see how to post comments. (Unfortunately you have to register a user account to post comments, as I was getting hammered with too much spam to leave them open. When I upgrade the site this situation will improve.)

I'm posting it here as I was glad to read it!
---------------------------

Hi,

I couldn't see anywhere to leave comments on your blog, but I thought I'd respond to your question.

I've been following the peak oil issue (amongst others) for years and I don't really rate Kunstler's analysis very highly. He's a professional doomsayer - his predictions about Y2K were pretty similar to his peak oil prognositications. Thats not to say I disagree with him about the merits of suburbia, just that you shouldn't let your dislike of something cloud trying to make a realistic prediction of future developments.

Even if the more dire peak oil scenarios can be justified (and I don't think they can be), Alex's belief that its important to encourage people to deal with problems rather than simply abandon hope holds true.

Alex's co-founder at WorldChanging, Jamais Cascio, wrote a long rant about Kunstler a while ago which sums up the situation pretty well:

http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/003487.html

Cheers,
Gav
http://peakenergy.blogspot.com

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sarah,

Mon, 2006-11-27 17:39 — stiffpicken

sarah,

i stumbled upon the entire global peak oil theory after reading an excerpt from The Long Emergency in RollingStone. this was spring of 2005. i quickly read the entire book, read other related books and started lurking at the Oil Drum. i trend to the pessimistic side and i bought the doomer argument hook, line & sinker. since then, my position has become more moderate.

i recently went to see kunstler speak at a local community college. my reaction here.

nobody knows how peak oil will shake out. saying the supply of oil will not grow for 10 years is not the same thing as saying the supply of oil will decline 3% year over year for 10 years. how people & nations will react will depend on how desperate the situation becomes.

kunstler's vision is one of desperation - and, while it definitely sells books, it is a legitimate look at the situation.

that's what is so scary to me. kunstler's fundamental argument that we can't sustain the system, that we can't keep running it the way we run it right now, is totally legitimate. to tell people kunstler's vision is off the deep end or absurd strikes me as defensive. he could be right just like he could be wrong.

time will tell. glad i found your blog,
tom

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Kunstler Update (and WorldChanging Book Launch)

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